UK Survey of Iraqi Opinion - The Murdochian Spin
The construction of surveys and analysis of the results is an art form unto itself. Every public opinion poll is influenced by the phrasing of questions, the order in which questions are asked, the skill of the interviewer, underlying personal bias of the responder, and survey sample representation. Let’s be clear about [...]
The construction of surveys and analysis of the results is an art form unto itself. Every public opinion poll is influenced by the phrasing of questions, the order in which questions are asked, the skill of the interviewer, underlying personal bias of the responder, and survey sample representation. Let’s be clear about something right up front - I’m not a survey / polling wonk, and don’t claim to be an expert at analyzing survey results - but I can read and make some basic interpretations.
Only a Rupert Murdoch publication (The Times, UK) could positively spin the results of a survey that indicates one in four Iraqis have had a family member murdered since the invasion of Iraq four years ago:
MOST Iraqis believe life is better for them now than it was under Saddam Hussein, according to a British opinion poll published today.
The survey of more than 5,000 Iraqis found the majority optimistic despite their suffering in sectarian violence since the American-led invasion four years ago this week…
The Times article is based on a survey conducted by the UK polling firm, Opinion Research Business. It’s difficult to draw any specific conclusions about a possible ideological slant of ORB, because their client list appears to be all over the ideology roadmap - which is actually a good thing, at least from my own personal standpoint of determining survey credibility. This particular survey sampled 5,019 adults aged 18+ throughout Iraq, and was conducted in face-to-face interviews in all areas of the country. A PDF of the actual survey results and demographics can be found here.
So, with this introduction out of the way, let’s examine a few of the stats from the ORB survey, Public Attitudes in Iraq - Four Years On, March 2007. My commentary is in italics. (Note: for raw sectarian analytical purposes, I’m using the Mother Jones demographic breakdown of Iraq - 65% Shia, 15% Sunni, and 20% Kurd.)
- Iraqis are evenly split on the question of whether or not the country is engaged in or close to a civil war. 63% of Sunnis say they are in, or close to, a state of civil war. 49% of the total population and 36% of Shia think the same. (Page 10)
This is a little bit surprising. Througout the survey, it’s crystal clear that there’s a tremendous divide in opinion between the largest sectarian divisions in Iraq, the Sunni, Shia, and Kurds. So, it seems significant that fully half of the country - and nearly 2/3 of the Sunni population, - believes that they are involved in or close to a civil war.
- 50% of Iraqis experienced the murder or kidnapping of a friend, family member or colleague. (Page 7)
All I can say is - damn. Of the more than 5000 people surveyed, in all areas of the country, half have had someone they know (or love) killed or kidnapped (or in some cases, presumably both). Transpose this number in your mind for a moment, and apply that stat to your own cushy life. Then, consider the following statistic…
- With respect to things being better or worse since Saddam, again, opinions are almost evenly split. As an aggregate, 49% of Iraqis feel things are better. 29% of Sunni say better, 62% say worse or the same. 66% of Shia say better, 26% say worse or the same. (Page 32)
So, where does the murdochian spin of “MOST Iraqis believe life is better for them now than it was under Saddam Hussein” come from?? An ex-Fox producer’s mind who is now working for the UK Times? 49% isn’t even a majority. Ask Al Gore. But watch as Fox News spins this all over their Sunday news shows. There’s apparently even a sizeable minority of the previously oppressed Shia who feel that things were better under Saddam. Go figure.
- When asked why they thought that George Bush was implementing the U.S. escalation, only 33% responded, “To increase security and stability in Iraq”. 36% see more nefarious motives: to invade a neighboring country, to take out the al-Maliki government, or to “take control of Iraq”. (Page 1)
The cynicism of the average Iraqi toward the “surge” clearly shows in this statistic. What’s even more interesting is the sectarian breakdown of the answers to this question. Clearly, the Shia believe that Bush is using the escalation of forces as a staging ground for a future invasion of Iran.
- And lastly, launching from the previous question, 53% of Iraqis believe that the security situation in Iraq will be better when the U.S. departs. Only 26% feel it will be worse.
Without doing a moment’s worth of research, I’ll bet that the attitudes of average Americans are comparable in this regard. The bottom line - a majority of Americans want the U.S. out of Iraq, and a majority of Iraqis want the U.S. out of Iraq. So what are we still doing there? Oh, yeah - now I remember.
There’s more to the survey, but now you have a taste. Murdoch takes hay that’s been processed through a bull, and spins it into pyrite for the Bush regime. The problem for the Murdoch empire is: fewer and fewer people are buying Rupert’s brand of “fools gold”. The vast majority of Americans, viewing the quagmire from a distance, no longer believe a word the Bush regime says about Iraq. A clear majority of Iraqis, living the quagmire every day close up and personal, never did. They wish to control their own destiny.
Update: - And, of course, Drudge is already on board with the Murdochian spin as well…IRAQIS: LIFE IS GETTING BETTER (h/t Mike from Cursor). Cernig at Newshog takes a further look at the survey spin in the right side of the blogosphere.
Hi Richard,
I’ve been looking at these articles and the further spin being put on them by the rightwing blogs too.
A little bit of Google search finds the original survey…and it isn’t at all happy-happy-joy-joy.
22% of those questioned think the real purpose of the “surge” is to build up forces for an attack on Iran or Syria. Only a third are sure the purpose is the one stated - bringing security back to Iraq.
A full half of all those questioned said they had experienced the murder or kidnap of a family member, friend or colleague in the last three years.
In Baghdad, only 21% reported that they had experienced no such event in the last three years.
That “disarming the militias” question? 45% said Malikis plan would succeed, 22% said it wouldn’t…but another full 26% said they didn’t know whether the plan would succeed or not. That’s hardly a “two to one” vote of confidence. In Baghdad, 31% of those who say Maliki’s plan won’t work - the most common answer - say it is because the militias are supported by the US. Clearly, there’s some “hearts and minds” work still to do.
A full 59% of those who took part in the survey were unemployed. 32% said there was no-one in their household with a job.
The survey contained no questions about the success or failure of the US portion of the “surge” and no questions about whether disarming the militias would actually help or worsen security.
All of which leaves Tigerhawk and his kin grasping at logical straws and ther est of us wondering if rose-colored glasses are standard issue for headline writers at Murdoch’s London Times.
Regards, C
I’m confused. As far as I can tell, the survey says that only 27% of the Iraqi population as a whole think that Iraq is now in a state of civil war. Where do you get the 49% of the total population figure?
This poll report is being spouted on CSPN this morning. Without comment, natch.
“In or close to a state of war”. I’ve bolded the operative phrase.
Ohhhhh, okay. Now I get it. Thanks, Richard.
Not a problem, Kathy - my analysis of that bullet point was a little weird, though - so I modified it a bit for clarity. Thanks for the feedback!
part of the problem with the poll is how they fudge the differences between the three major groups in iraq. the groups are really called “the shia”, “the sunni” and “the kurds”, but the first two are words to describe religious differences and the latter is used to describe ethnic differences. most of the kurds are sunnis, but during this war “the sunnis” almost always means sunni arabs. (e.g. “the sunni triangle” does not include kurdish areas, even though those areas are also sunni)
so a more accurate way to describe the three groups are: shia arabs, sunni arabis, and sunni kurds. but what it looks like this poll is doing is lumping together sunni arabs with sunni kurds into one group called “the sunnis.” the reason that is problematic is because sunni arabs and sunni kurds in iraq have tended to have radically different views in all prior opinion surveys. sunni arabs, for example, form the bulk of the insurgency and are the most hostile group to the u.s.’ presence in iraq. sunni kurds, on the other hand, are the most pro-u.s. faction and kurdish areas have largely escaped the sectarian violence that grips the rest of the country (mostly because there are so few shia in the kurdish north)
so when i read that 29% of sunnis think they are better off now than they were under saddam, i wonder how many of that 29% are kurds (who really had a bad time under saddam, and who mostly live in the only corner of iraq that can be called “peaceful” right now) and how many are the sunni arabs who we usually think of when we hear “the sunnis.”
The “analyser” of the Murdoch spin is quite good at his own spin. The negative spin “analyser” blithely tip toed around the claim that 50% of the interviewed knew someone whom they know or love who had been killed or kidnapped or both. What on earth does that mean. How many persons does each person in the sample know in this way? Fifty percent of the population is about 13 million
So we are talking statistically about that number knowing or loving someone who has been killed or injured. Unless millions are in that category, of the killed and kidnapped, it is more likely that that 50% is lying or got their information from news sources.
There seems to be some confusion in the writer’ mind about Iraq’s demographics, which confusion certainly helps when one is trying to put a negative spin on the data. The rough figures are 60 % Shia Arabs, 22% Sunni Kurds and about 15% Sunni Arabs. Given that the pro-American Sunni Kurds outnumber the Sunni Arabs one can readily see that someone is playing funny buggers with the poll ( it is not fully representative of all Sunnis) or the analysis of it.
In a similar vein we do not know how the questions were framed for questions such as “What is the purpose of the Surge?” The writer acknowledges this problem in analysing the poll results.
Finally for those with some knowledge of the Iraqi idiom, all polls amongst them need to be taken with a grain of salt. The Iraqi idiom is often one of hyperbole and full of what we Westerners would consider to be inconsistencies eg. it has been known that those who in a certain context would shout “Death to America” have in another been involved in friendly discussions with local US commanders in organising security patrols in their communities.