What Does Huckabee’s Rise Mean?
Republicans are in trouble if Huckabee keeps climbing in the polls, and not just if he wins the nomination. Sadly, for them, every controversy seems to feed his candidacy. (This post contains only a slight reference to Ron Paul.)
Several polls lately have been showing Mike Huckabee rising among the Republican candidates, and not only in Iowa, where he leads. The latest CNN poll is showing Huckabee catching Rudy in national polling, with Mitt Romney, John McCain, Fred Thompson and Ron Paul running behind. Here’s the poll results and the details:
Giuliani, the former New York City mayor, is backed by 24 percent of Republican voters nationally while Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas, is at 22 percent.
The two-point difference is well within the surveys sampling error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is at 16 percent in the new poll, followed by Sen. John McCain of Arizona at 12 percent, Former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee at 10 percent, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas at 6 percent, Rep. Duncan Hunter of California at 2 percent and Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado at 1 percent. View complete poll results »
The poll, conducted December 6-9, involved nationwide telephone interviews with 377 registered Republicans voters or independent voters who lean Republican.
Why is it that Huckabee is climbing despite the alarming opinions he has? Huckabee takes a hit for snapping at reporters for asking questions about creationism, though that likely energizes his base. He takes another hit for releasing a murderer who goes on murdering and raping. The guy wanted to quarantine AIDS patients back in the day that such was an extremist view, but he’s skating on that one, or so it seems. Now he’s behind a statement, just ten years ago, that calls for women to submit to their husbands. He’s showing that he’s not in step with anyone besides his Christian Conservative base, and maybe all we’ve got here is a true measure of the power of the Christian conservatives.
Meanwhile, the New York Times has an article out that claims that rank and file Republicans aren’t getting excited by this race. Here’s the scoop from the Times:
Not one of the Republican candidates is viewed favorably by even half the Republican electorate, the poll found. And in a sign of the fluidity of the race, former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, who barely registered in early polls several months ago, is now locked in a tight contest nationally with Rudolph W. Giuliani and Mitt Romney.
. . .
More than anything else, the poll underlines sharp differences between the Republican and Democratic electorate in how each views its candidates. Democratic voters, on the whole, see their candidates considerably more favorably than Republicans see theirs.
Mrs. Clinton is viewed favorably by 68 percent of Democrats, followed by Mr. Obama, viewed favorably by 54 percent. Mr. Edwards is viewed favorably by 36 percent.
On the Republican side, in contrast, Mr. Giuliani is viewed favorably most frequently, and that is by only 41 percent. Senator John McCain is viewed favorably by 37 percent, and Mr. Romney by 36 percent. Mr. Huckabee is viewed favorably by 30 percent, and 60 percent say they do not know enough about him to offer an opinion, suggesting that he may be vulnerable to the kind of attacks that his opponents have already been mounting against him.
Seventy-six percent of Republican respondents say they could still change their minds about whom to support, compared with 23 percent who say their decision is firm. Among Democrats, 59 percent say they may change their minds, as against 40 percent who say they have made their decision.
Libby Bass, 67, a Republican respondent from Woodbine, Ga., said in a follow-up interview that she was weary of hearing the Republicans argue with one another and that she was not ready to make a decision.
“They’re not telling us what their plans or goals are, they’re just mimicking each other,” Ms. Bass said. “I’m waiting to see if someone comes up with something that will change my mind.”
The Times has got it wrong if they think no Republican is energized in this race. I’m thinking the supporters of Mike Huckabee are very energized, and probably exactly because of these controversies we on the progressive side see as debilitating to a politician. I’m thinking they’ve no problem with releasing a murderer, because Huckabee did it to strike back at Bill Clinton. The AIDS quarantine was what many on the extreme religious right hoped for back in the day, and they’re likely proud Huckabee was one of their number. And don’t get me started about that advertisement extolling the virtues of keeping women subservient to their husbands — it was based entirely on biblical principles simply out of tune with our American society. Perhaps the answer here. We’re getting a read on exactly how large the Radical Right Wing Christian Conservative wing of the Republican Party is, those folks who are completely out of tune with the vast majority of the American public.
And that is good. It seems to me that if all these folks line up behind Mike Huckabee and make him the Republican nominee, then we’ve got a big win next year. If Huckabee makes a great run but loses out to Giuliani, then the big block of Christian conservatives, energized by Huckabee, will act like a deflated balloon when faced with the adulterous Giuliani. Same goes if they are faced with Mitt Romney, because, as we know, a whole lot of the radical religious right doesn’t think Mormons are real Christians, and I’m not thinking they were fooled by Mitt’s speech last week.
Yes, all of this is good news.



