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Virginia is the Battleground, Republicans an Afterthought

Republicans are going to fast become an old story now that McCain appears to be locking it up, especially since far more Americans are voting in the Democratic primaries. We turn our eyes to Virginia, then, notwithstanding the fight amongst some Republicans against McCain, as ugly as that fight might get.

Commentary By: Steven Reynolds

I remember hearing a while ago that Republicans were upset that they didn’t have a nominee already. Seems they’ve had one early all the way since Trent Lott was a babe in arms (why didn’t his mother slap him?). Well, they’ve got McCain now, unless Rush and Daddy Dobson and Coulter the dominatris and Denny and the whole crew can rile up the ultra religious right wing. The WaPo has some thoughts on that.

“I want to make the point that a lot of conservatives are coming home to McCain,” says former senator Phil Gramm (Tex.), a McCain supporter. “But some aren’t. Some just don’t seem to understand that if they don’t do this, it’s going to hurt the party for a long time. They say they have principles, but some of it is their ego and power, too. They’re well-known, and they’re used to having power.”

The conservative firestorm has been fueled by radio talk-show hosts and pundits upset that McCain’s campaign, left for dead after money problems and a staff upheaval, unexpectedly resurrected itself in New Hampshire, and he became the leader after wins in South Carolina and Florida. Largely ignored by critics until his comeback, McCain became the target of a vocal band of influential conservative commentators distraught over the possibility of his nomination.

Rush Limbaugh declared that a McCain triumph would “destroy the party.” James Dobson, leader of Focus on the Family, said that he will not vote for McCain under any circumstances. Ann Coulter allowed as to how she would rather vote for Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton than for McCain.

Former and current Republican congressional colleagues joined in the attacks. Former House speaker J. Dennis Hastert cited what he termed McCain’s lack of party loyalty by labeling him an “undependable vote,” and Sen. Thad Cochran (Miss.) raised questions about his temperament for the Oval Office.

The incoming conservative fire against McCain has become a distraction, Gramm acknowledges. “Some people, in their own minds, think they have exerted a strong influence over the party, and now they are seeing that influence passing,” he said. “There’s some bitterness on their part. They’re people who put their dogma in front of the interests of the country. . . . They don’t like it that McCain is McCain.”

I say let them go at it. The real race right now, and it will be devouring the headlines for the next couple months, is Obama and Hillary. These two are already gathering twice as many votes as all the Republican candidates combined, and that’s good news for November, no matter which of them wins. But they’re going to gather the press coverage by at least two to one in the next few weeks, and unless this fight becomes bitter, which I do not expect, then that’s all good for the eventual Democratic nominee.

It’s all about Virginia right now, and as the WaPo notes, it’s Obama’s to lose.

Clinton and Obama enter the state all but deadlocked after Tuesday’s contests in 22 states. Both sides are preparing for a weeks-long slog in which virtually every delegate takes on huge significance.

Each campaign boasts strong ties to the state’s leading Democrats. Obama is backed by Gov. Timothy M. Kaine and Rep. Robert C. Scott (D), the state’s only black congressman.

Clinton’s deputy campaign manager, Mike Henry, directed Kaine’s 2005 campaign, which relied in part on winning Prince William and Loudoun. Mo Elleithee, a communications specialist, and Matt Felan, a finance official, who have extensive Virginia roots, are working on her state strategy. Mame Reilly of Alexandria, a confidante of former governor Mark R. Warner and the head of a Democratic National Committee caucus on women, is one of her most prominent supporters in the state.

Obama strategists have broken Virginia into four parts — Northern Virginia, Richmond, Charlottesville and the Tidewater area — all of which are filled with the voters they seek. He is expected to hold events in all four areas as he blitzes the region Sunday and Monday.

Kevin Griffis, an Obama spokesman, said the Illinois senator will be more appealing than Clinton to Northern Virginians, including the area’s significant number of self-described independents. In Virginia, voters are free to decide on Election Day which party’s primary they will participate in.

“Barack has proven he can do well with voters . . . in Northern Virginia,” Griffis said. The inner suburbs of Arlington and Alexandria are populated by many recent immigrants and young professionals.

Strategists say African Americans could make up 25 percent of Virginians voting in the Democratic primary. Scott, the congressman, said he expects Obama to win a solid majority of those voters but warned that he should not underestimate Clinton’s black support.

“You have two candidates that are both frankly deserving of a good vote in the African American community, and they will have to look very closely at which would be the stronger candidate,” said Scott, who added that he is convinced Obama would be the superior candidate in the general election.

Yesterday, Obama’s team announced that Kaine’s wife, Anne Holton, and Warner’s wife, Lisa Collis, are helping lead the group Virginia Women for Obama.

I’m going to do something I rarely do, and that’s go for the guy with the money. Obama raised well over $7MM in the last few days, with Hillary Clinton raising almost enough to pay back the loan she made to her own campaign. I applaud her on that fundraising, but she’s going to be cash poor in a state that most pundits think is Obama’s to lose. With Maryland also an Obama state, the good press is going to Obama for a while. Good for Obama.

Thursday, February 7th, 2008 | Reddit |

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