This is almost laughable.

Every time that there is an uptick in violence in Iraq, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki goes public with a statement denouncing the violence, and that the perps will be found and prosecuted. Such pronouncements from al-Maliki are about as predictable as Dick Cheney parachuting into the Green Zone Bar and Grille every couple of months, and telling everyone how wonderfully things are going in the quagmire.

Al-Maliki has been in Basra for the past couple of days, ostensibly “supervising” the battle against a well organized group of shadowy militia men who have been blowing stuff up and killing people. (Recall that the U.K. pulled out of Basra several months ago, and handed over security to Iraqi police and military forces.) Supervising? On-site?? That would be like George Bush going to New Orleans in the immediate aftermath of Katrina and personally supervising recovery efforts.

(Ok, quit laughing now.)

Anyway, al-Maliki issued an ultimatum to the bad guys today, against a backdrop of the rocket’s red glare in several locations in Iraq:

Iraq’s prime minister on Wednesday gave gunmen in the southern oil port of Basra three days to surrender their weapons and renounce violence as clashes between security forces and Shiite militia fighters erupted for a second day.

Suspected Shiite extremists also unleashed rockets or mortars against the U.S.-protected Green Zone in central Baghdad for the third day this week.

Three Americans were seriously injured in the attacks, U.S. Embassy spokeswoman Mirembe Nantongo said. At least eight Iraqis also were killed after rounds fell short in several areas of Baghdad…

What’s next if the violence doesn’t abate, or no one turns in their weapons? Is al-Maliki going to issue a strongly worded letter to the Mahdi Army? (Perhaps he could seek advice from a few ranking Dem members of the U.S. congress.)

Fingers are being pointed toward Moqtada al-Sadr (and Iran), but it seems like kind of a moot point to try and lay blame. As has been the case in the past, there are many disparate and non-aligned groups in Iraq who have an axe to grind with both the American occupation and the puppet Iraqi government which hunkers down inside the Green Zone.

Time Magazine lays out the complexity:

…Tuesday’s sweep of Basra could turn sour in other southern cities where the central government’s power is weak. Indeed, many Shi’ites are seeing this not just as an example of the Shi’ite Maliki taking on other Shi’ites (including Sadrists) but of America backing the Prime Minister up in a de facto Shi’a civil war. Iraqi government forces have attacked Shi’ite militias and gangs in at least seven major southern Iraq cities in the past two weeks. And America has been there to support Maliki’s troops every time…

It’s hard to believe that this development was unexpected, particularly with the U.K. quitting Iraq (U.K. forces had responsibility for Basra and much of southern Iraq). A vacuum of power existed, and the various splintered Shiite factions were certain to come out of the woodwork when the weather warmed up a bit.

With Gen. Petraeus due to give another “progress report” to congress at the beginning of April, it’s a stone cold lock that Iraq will resume its place in the headlines leading up to the presidential nominating conventions. And John McCain’s 100 year Iraqi fantasy isn’t looking so swell right now.

Update: From Time.com, a must-read soldier’s missive on the meaning of 4,000 dead. Compare and contrast: McCain: Pulling out of Iraq now would be an ‘act of betrayal’.