What Harms John McCain’s Candidacy Most?
John McCain has a ton of obstacles to the White House, and Barack Obama may not be the biggest obstacle. Is it his age, his connection to Bush, the “R” by his name, Cindy McCain? Which do you think is the biggest obstacle to McCain’s Presidential campaign? You can post your answers here:
If the average Republican, meaning those few who haven’t already defected to the Democratic Party of retreated to the lunatic fringe (how do you tell Republicans from the lunatic fringe, anyway?), have got to be worried about John McCain’s chances for the Presidency this Fall. There are tons of factors against him, after all, but which of those factors is most significant.
I thought of this post the other day. I suppose we could argue over Mitchell Aboulafia’s post called “A Dozen Reasons Why McCain Won’t Win: Money-Back Guarantee.” Mitchell has some very sound reasoning there, but what’s the most important factor? Here’s the top four in Mitch’s list, but please go read the rest:
1. The McBush factor. McCain’s support of the Iraq War will make it impossible for him to break from Bush, the most unpopular president in living memory. The photo/video of McCain hugging and being kissed by Bush will become increasingly embedded in the collective consciousness of the American people as the months roll on.
2. The Republican factor. Yes, McCain is a Republican. He will not be able to deny this fact. Currently, this is not the best party to have behind you in a push to the White House. Witness the recent loss of three traditionally Republican congressional seats and the declining number of Americans willing to identify themselves as Republicans. And then there are the comments of Congressman Tom Davis. “The political atmosphere facing House Republicans this November is the worst since Watergate and is far more toxic than it was in 2006” (NY Times, May 15th, 2008).
3. The Last War Syndrome. McCain and the operatives running his campaign are like generals fighting the last war. They are still convinced that negative advertising will be as successful against Obama as it was against Kerry. However, “The Times They are A-Changin.” And this leads to the next factor.
4. The Change Factor: Hillary tried experience, but this race is about change and the future. McCain appears to be operating a time machine that has only a reverse gear.
Mitchell goes on to discuss the fundraising abilities of Obama and McCain. That seems an especially tough problem for McCain, since he needs Bush to access the deep pockets of the 28%ers, but can’t be seen to tie himself to them. I suppose McCain, Mr. Straighttalker, will simply close those fundraising events to the press. After all, we don’t want to see if he’s talking to lobbyists or something! Of course, McCain being led by the nose by lobbyists, belying his carefully-built but false image as a maverick, is an especially sensitive topic, what with there being more lobbyists in key roles in the McCain campaign than any other, despite the lobbyists who have been asked to resign. Where else could the lobbyists go, though, than to work on political campaigns after the Republican Abramoff scandals blew the lid off their K Street project? They went to McCain. Yes, McCain was connected to Abramoff (and more here, and here). Hey, there’s a story waiting for the news to pick up on it!
Maybe McCain’s woes are so tangled up that it’s hard to pick one angle that’s the worst for him. His age? Well, it might help if he didn’t have a wife who is 20 years his Junior, and an ex-wife around somewhere. McCain can’t exactly stress family values and old-time morality with that hanging over him. It’s not too long a shot to think he’ll eventually start looking like a dirty old man. Yes, I’m suggesting the Republicans would do right to get Cindy McCain a clothing designer, and they’d also do well to get his kids on stage once in a while. OK, pictures like this remind us of the Bush girls, though some in the right wing might love being reminded of those girls, you think?
But, hey, this isn’t about giving John McCain advice. It’s about identifying the one factor that cripples his campaign worse than any other. Is it the dissarray in the McCain campaign that hurts most? McBush? You decide.
What harm’s John McCain’s candidacy most?
…the TRUTH about John McCain!
slightly off topic, but there’s a helluva good show on hbo, abt diebold, and election fraud. who was it that said, it doesn’t matter how votes were cast, it’s who counts them, that matters?
I’d imagine it’s the ‘R’ after his name. In any other cycle, he’d be almost unbeatable with the press being in the tank for him and the fake ‘moderate’ dance he’s been pulling for 12 years now.
Spin,
The one item that would harm McCain’s campaign the most would be having Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee. Clinton is a warrior and a survivor, despite all of her self-admitted baggage. She can make the case that she’s tough on terrorism (she voted to authorize the Iraq war), has a substantial command of international relations (she was an active First Lady), and can win over plenty of moderates in a war that Obama cannot.
As Mitch has a top 4, let me create a top 4 that demonstrate why Obama won’t win the presidency.
1. Voters will legitimately question his patriotism. Obama has not been a fan of wearing a flag lapel, a staple in this business. Also, he still doesn’t understand that Americans don’t like when you meet your enemies without preconditions. He still wants to meet the dictators directly.
2. The Democrat Factor. The stereotype will continue — Democrats are great for the working class, but Republicans are great for the entrepreneurs and for national security. Just as McCain will have to overcome the hatred against Republicans, Obama will have to overcome the unease that many moderate Republicans have with electing a candidate from anti-business party.
3. The Acropolis Syndrome. The Acropolis looks good from the outside, but there’s nothing inside. Obama has a message of “change” that McCain doesn’t have. But the message has never been backed up by specifics. It’s empty — just window dressing. Once the fall comes around, Obama will have to provide specifics on how change will come about — he will especially need to document how he will pay for his programs. That’s what nailed Gore and Kerry. It’s what will nail him. Clinton is the only Democrat that has documented how she will pay for things.
4. The Next War Syndrome. Obama will be perceived as being weak on defense. That will nail him, even from some Democrats.
Spin, you obviously don’t like McCain because your article is about crippling him. That’s sad. I don’t support Obama or Clinton, but I don’t encourage people to cripple their campaigns. I understand your frustration with my party. It’s just sad that instead of working across the aisle, your goal is to destroy the other side.
Let’s work together.
Sen. Obama has some good ideas. Let’s hope there will be a spirited debate in the fall.
Yes, wearing a lapel pin is a legitimate claim to patriotism, right after putting a ribbon magnet on your car that was made in China. Come on, John, you no better than to try the jingoistic patriotism card!
As to your other points, they expose McCain far, far more than Obama. The Democrat factor will harm small business? How could anyone harm the business sector more than the Republicans have over the last seven years, with John McCain making most of the votes that supported Bush’s disastrous policies? The Acropolis Factor? Oh, you’re simply lazy if you think Obama is all slogans and no ideas, and if you know Obama has ideas but still spread the spurious notion he does not, then you are not lazy but dishonest. Finally the “Next War Factor.” The American public is going to associate war with John McCain, and is going to fear he’ll have us mired in war for many, many years. They’re going to be afraid he’ll take us into Iran. No, any emphasis on “war” is not going to be good for McCain, except maybe among the 28%ers.
The biggest thing that will do in McCain is Obama’s new voters. How did the Dems win those special elections? It wasn’t just a “tarnished GOP brand”. The GOP brand is no more tarnished this year than it was last year, yet the special elections last year went more or less OK. It is because Obama’s primary campaign registered tens of millions of new voters, mostly blacks and students, and got them to the polls. Obama can double the black vote and triple the student vote, and that is enough to carry VA, NC, SC, MS, and GA. It won’t matter if McCain takes PA and OH, and even if McCain can take CA (very unlikely) Obama might still have a shot.
I’m thinking the failure of the GOP brand to make inroads into those new demograhics is a part of this formula as well. And I’d say that this is going to be a long reign if the Democrats work it right. The average GOP voter is far older than the average Dem voter, and far more lily white. Their voters are dying and fast turning into our nation’s minority race. That can’t be good for the short or long term for GOPers like McCain.