My Prediction for Obama’s Veep: Joseph Robinette Biden
So, who will Obama select? Kaine is a strong outside-the-beltway candidate who can carry a southern state. Bayh has a Democratic pedigree that isn’t easily rivaled. I’ll go with Joe Biden, because he can stand up to anything the Republicans throw at him. Still, Chuck Hagel might be the wisest choice.
OpenLeft has an article today stating that the finalists to serve as Vice President under President Barack Obama are Tim Kaine, Evan Bayh and Joe Biden (they give Bayh little chance). I’m comfortable at this time agreeing with Armstrong Williams at The Hill and saying the choice will be Joe Biden. First, let’s talk about the other two.
Tim Kaine is a southerner and a Washington outsider, and that would be very good for Obama. Unfortunately, he’s got little recognition, and while he might be able to capture Virginia and its electoral votes, those votes are in play anyway. Tim Kaine is just 50 years old, too, and that might help solidify this older vs. younger race this fall. Still, who isn’t younger than John McCain? I also like that Kaine is from a middle class background, is Roman Catholic, and has a fine educational background at Harvard Law. Oh, the Repubs will still call him an elitist. But the ruling notions here are that Kaine has little name recognition nationwide, has no foreign policy cred, and isn’t seen as a guy who can debate strongly.
Evan Bayh has a pedigree. He is the son of Birch Bayh, who was a fixture in the Democratic Senate back in the day. While Bayh is from a state Barack Obama will want to carry, Obama’s own proximity to the state may be enough to carry Indiana. Bayh may have the executive experience as a former Governor, and he has some foreign policy experience from his work in the Senate, but the Republicans would be on much firmer ground in labelling Evan Bayh an elitist. He went to St. Albans, after all, and we’ve had enough sons of career politicians in the White House lately, haven’t we? I’m on record noting that Evan Bayh is a good guy. No, he’s not the progressive many of our readers here on ASZ would want. I understand that. I know Evan Bayh because in the early 90’s I lived next door to his Education Secretary. I trust Mike Gary to have given me good information, and if he trusts Evan Bayh, then I do as well. Still, Evan Bayh will not be chosen.
That brings the choice down to one man, Joe Biden, unless Barack Obama goes off the rails and chooses Chuck Hagel to run as his Veep. We’ve got a problem here, in that Biden’s middle name in “Robinette.” Man, can we elect a guy with that name? And biden brings zero states with him, though I’m not convinced that Veep candidates should bring a state or region with them. They should strengthen the entire ticket, shouldn’t they? Biden is a Washington insider, and that strikes against him, but he commutes from Delaware, and as such he’s tried to insulate himself from the Washington crowd. Biden has the Foreign policy cred, as his Foreign Relations Committee service will show, as will his recent trip to Georgia. Hey, and it has been a long long time since Biden was caught plagiarizing Neil Kinnock, almost as long ago as John McCain was caught in bed with Charles Keating. Some Americans will remember Joe Biden fighting against the nomination of Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court. That will be good. More important, Joe Biden is articulate and will serve as a strong advocate for Barack Obama.
I don’t expect Barack Obama to break the mold and go for Chuck Hagel as a Veep. I expect there are too many Democrats who could not tolerate such a blatantly bipartisan choice. Alas. Chuck Hagel isn’t a bad candidate at all. Still, my prediction is with Biden.
Edit, Wednesday morning, 8/20/2008: Now Joe Biden went and told the world he wasn’t “the guy.” Well, that could very well be a lowering of expectations, so I’ll doggedly hold to my prediction. I’ll see what my students have to say, this first day of class. Heck, maybe I’ll invite them to make comments.
I continue to believe the choice comes down to Colin Powell or John Kerry… all the names being prominently mentioned are just headfakes and smokescreen, which have major negatives attached to them (though if Obama’s top couple picks turn him down he may end up with his 3rd or 4th choice for VP).
with the mention of colin powell, it’s my hope that powell will endorse obama soon, and put some head wind to blow against mccain’s alleged ownership of the so-called security plank.
where is the american public?
as a nation, we’re swimming in defense systems, paying almost $600 billion annually — greater than the sum of all other nations’ defense budget — and the “fear” card is still used, and effectively evidently! and then of course ssince the iraq war is financed by money from china, and which we have no control over, nobody really knows how mcu we spend on defense, except that it’s a very large amount that will saddle our kids of many many future generations with debts
i too am with biden, but when will obama unleash the other senators as surrogates to attack mccain for his false claims?
and why not kick turn-coat lieberman out of the Dem senate caucus?., and suffer the consequences of losing one vote? (allegedly, lieberman is kept on for his votes on domestic matters, other than defense.)
as you can see, i am pissed off and what has caused it is the Dems — including obama — acting like sheep. the polls today show that obama has lost his lead, and now has to begin to recover it, an uphill battle, unless, unless, he can turn it around in the debates?
I can’t tell if this post is supposed to be sarcastic or not. Maybe it’s the use of the word “articulate” in association with Biden that’s messing me up. Is he clean as well?
Anyway if this is a serious post - Biden would be a good attack dog, Kaine would not. On the other hand, Biden reinforces the idea that Obama has a lack of experience that needs to be buttressed by his choice of VP. Kaine presents an image that Obama is confident enough in his own abilities that he doesn’t need a VP to “shore him up” on any of his “negatives”.
I’d prefer it to not be either of them - I’m still crossing my fingers for a Sebelius pick - but the candidate that makes Obama look the best among these three is Kaine. Of course that makes for the horrible “Obama/Kaine” jokes that are going come - including, I assume, ones that play on the use of nose candy in the candidate’s past. From a marketing perspective “Obama/Kaine” isn’t so great for a lot of reasons, and while I wish that marketing weren’t something that had to be considered for a presidential campaign, I suspect that clever slogans and bumper stickers do more to win elections than the political expertise of the VP candidate.
NonyNony, there’s a bit of sarcasm here. I’m not entirely delighted with the Biden choice. The use of “articulate” was intentional and with a tinge of sarcasm, for instance, as was the use of Biden’s middle name. But there is a bit of straight prediction as well.
Steve, I am surprised that you did not respond to my crabby post this morning. Don’t bother now though, because if it didn’t provoke you at the time, it would look silly to day anything so much later after the fact.
Seriously, the news that Obama has slipped below mccain in the polls really has me disturbed. I remember in 2001 when baker was working for bush on the Florida voting results, the one thing he worked mightily for was to make certain that never, never, did bush’s numbers slip below gore’s, because of the psychological effect it would have on the credibility of the results. I view obama’s early lead over McCain with a similar desire for maintaining obama’s credibility.
It’s that damn “racism”, I guess. After all, the nation hasn’t gone through the “catharsis” – there must be a more precise term than catharsis! — , necessary, if you will, of voting comfortably for any other candidate than “a white European male”
With someone like Biden, I see Obama getting a “two-fer”: the cred for defense and the cred for the “white European male”
If McCain is forced to choose..Willard Romney, that balances out. Obama needs an attack dog, Biden fits the bill but Clark would negate McCain’s POW story.
I personally like Hagel, yes progressives would be pissed, but it would put the GOP in a tailspin